According to Bloomberg New Energy Finance Report of July 2020, Investing in the Recovery and Transition of Europe’s Coal Regions, Bulgaria will have to build a total of 7.7 GW new RES power generation capacity for about EUR 6.2 billion in the next 10 years. The organization claims that from the perspective of costs and environmental advantages, this is the most cost-effective and efficient scenario for low-carbon development of the country in the context of decarbonisation plans by 2030.
The scenario envisages decommissioning of 3/4 (3.2 GW) of the coal-fired power plants by 2023 and replacing them with new RES – mostly utility-scale PVs, with an increase in share expected to move from 7% in 2018 to 33% of the installed capacity in 2030. Wind generation, in turn, should rise from its modest 5% in 2018 to about one fifth of the installed capacity in 2030. No substantial change is expected in the combined-cycle gas power stations, but rather a slight shrinking in its relative share from 5% to 4% in 2030. No change is expected also in the installed nuclear power capacity. No new hydropower capacities are foreseen to be introduced.
Out of the calculated necessary investments to build new RES capacity of EUR 6.2 billion, the better part – EUR 3.6 billion – are for financing wind power farms since the capital costs of PVs has substantially decreased in the recent years. (see the last IRENA Report on RES costs for 2019).
The graph below presents a comparison of the least-cost development scenario proposed for Bulgaria in the Report with the National Energy and Climate Plan of the government.
According to BNEF, the scenario proposed, while accounting for the existing nuclear and hydropower capacity, will enable the country to rely on 49% RES share and a total of over 83% carbon-free power generation, and a 70% (against 2018) total reduction in carbon emissions from power generation by 2030.