A forecast of record generation and export of electricity  in Bulgaria to 2050

In a previous analysis we presented the updated reference energy scenario of the European Commission to 2050 ((EU ENERGY, TRANSPORT AND GHG EMISSIONS TRENDS TO 2050. REFERENCE SCENARIO 2013“). In this article we are making you familiar with the forecasts and trends in the energy development of Bulgaria to 2050 according to above mentioned paper.

More economy, less energy

With electricity quantities almost equivalent to those in 2010, in 2050 it is expected the Bulgarian GDP to be 80% higher than the one in 2010.

Less energy per GDP

This is achieved by improved  energy intensity of GDP.  WithIn the period till 2030 the energy intensity of the GDP will decrease by 33% and after that the pace will slow sharply. Through the next 20 years till 2050 the slowdown will reach 12%, compared to 2030.

 

 Not just less, but a cleaner energy

The carbon intensity of GIC will drop by 12.8% for the period till 2030, after which for the next 20 years decreases twice.

 

 

 

Cleaner energy due to RES

A key contributor to the lower CO2 emissions (see the carbon intensity of GIC indicator) is the growing RES energy share in the gross final energy consumption; It will grow steadily with higher rate till 2030 and after that will slow down. The share of the RES in the transport sector will grow rapidly for the period till 2030 and then a reverse trend will be observed – a decrease in 2050, compared to 2030.

…. And because of the four times cleaner electricity and heat energy production

A key contributor to the decrease of the carbon intensity of the GIC is the “Electricity and Heat Production” sector. The decrease of the carbon emissions in this sector will be faster than the overall – by 35% till 2030 and nearly three times more in the period 2030 – 2050. Cumulatively for the period 2010 – 2050 the carbon intensity of the sector will decrease 4.25 times, reaching a value of 0.12 tons of carbon dioxide per 1 MWh generated.

A record high electricity production and a twofold increase of the export

The gross electricity production in the country will steadily grow. In 2050 it will reach a record high level of 71 088 GWh. The export will also steadily grow in parallel – from 8 000 to 16 000 GWh annually in 2050. The following trends are outlined in the structure of the electricity production:

• The nuclear electricity production will be constant till 2030 – about 15 000 GWh annually till 2035. In the period 2030 – 2050 then the annual production will increase almost twice (1.85) as a result of the commissioning of new nuclear facilities.
• The electricity produced from coal will remain almost unchanged till 2030 and after that a decline will be projected by nearly 15% in 2050, compared to 2030.
•  Electricity generation from natural gas will increase over 4 times till 2030, determined by the need to balance the RES producers, followed by a decline till 2050.
• The levels of wind and solar electricity will grow steadily, as that of the hydro will record an insignificant decline in 2030 and 2050, compared to 2010 levels. Thus, in 2050 wind, solar and hydro will go hand in hand with almost equal annual production.

Clean coal technologies – in the far future

The High-efficiency CHP plants will increase almost three times till 2050. The introduction of CCS technologies will take place after 2045, which will be significantly delayed in time compared to previous, earlier forecasts.

 

 

 

 

 

 

The winner will be “Carbon free” electricity generation

The battle of “carbon free” vs. “carbon” will be won by “carbon free” in 2040, when its share will reach 65%. This production will dominate the next decade, although its share will fall to 60.7% in 2050. The reason for the decrease will be the introduction of CCS coal plants. Two thirds of the share of the “carbon free” will be due to the nuclear and one third to the RES energy.

And at the end, we have not forget that the Bulgarian forecast is a part of the pan-European scenario, which projects increase of the prices of the carbon allowances from 5€/tСО2 today to 100 €/tСО2.