A key element of the recently concluded trade agreement between the United States and the European Union concerns energy, and in particular, the import of oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG).

There is still no official text of the agreement, but media statements from the two leading institutions—the European Commission and the White House—indicate that the deal includes an intention to purchase more American liquefied natural gas (LNG), oil, and nuclear fuels, as well as cutting-edge technologies and investments over the next three years, until the end of 2028, with a total value of $750 billion (approximately €700 billion). This means $250 billion (around €233.3 billion) per year during that period.

The European Commission’s estimates behind the agreement:

The annual figure of $250 billion over the next three years represents an average projected value of total energy imports from the United States, based on a thorough and robust assessment that takes into account the following elements:

• Current volumes of imports of American LNG, oil, nuclear fuel, and related services into the EU amount to approximately $90–100 billion per year;

• The expected increase in import volumes of oil, gas, and nuclear fuels—including as part of the phase-out of Russian fossil fuels. In 2024, EU imports of fossil fuels from Russia amount to about €22 billion, while nuclear deliveries are estimated at around €700 million;

• Key investments in energy technologies, services, and U.S. exports to the EU, particularly in the nuclear sector—for conventional and small modular reactors (SMRs)—where there are already clear indications of engagement from American companies.

Въпреки че са направени солидни прогнози, крайните обеми и разпределението между петрол, втечнен природен газ и ядрено гориво/услуги ще зависят от множество фактори – включително цени на стоките, валутни курсове, окончателни инвестиционни решения от страна на участниците в проектите и други търговски параметри.

While solid projections have been developed, the final volumes and breakdown between oil, LNG and nuclear fuel and fuel services will depend on different factors, including commodity prices, exchange rates, FID decisions taken by project promoters, etc. These will be determined by commercial transactions.

According to Eurostat data, oil and gas imports from the United States in 2024 amount to approximately €60 billion. Given this, as well as infrastructure limitations on both sides of the Atlantic (in addition to market developments), it seems unlikely that the target amount of €233.3 billion per year will be reached.

Regarding the agreement, Eurelectric Secretary General, Christian Rubi, stated:

„The deal reflects the delicate, new geopolitical reality, which Europe needs to navigate. While it remains crucial to retain a strong transatlantic bond based on trade and security cooperation, it’s clear that Europe needs to take bold and swift action to bolster its strategic autonomy.

This involves diversifying supply chains and strengthening our domestic capabilities in critical sectors such as defence and the digital economy, while continuing the push towards a reliable and more homegrown supply of climate neutral energy.

The stated intention of the EU to procure 700bn EUR worth of fossil fuels from the US over the next three years directly contradicts that objective. Even if we need to diversify away from Russian supplies, Europe is currently not equipped to receive or consume such volumes of fossil fuels from the US.

Building additional fossil fuel infrastructure at this stage risks diverting attention from critical investments in clean energy infrastructure and electrification. It may lock Europe further in to its current import-based energy supply model. In the continued negotiations over the trade agreement, this element should therefore be removed or substantially reviewed.“

The European Commission expects the agreement to contribute to the implementation of the REPowerEU initiative and to the full substitution of Russian energy imports. The political agreement of 27 July 2025 is not legally binding. In addition to the immediate commitments already made, the EU and the US will continue negotiations in accordance with their respective internal procedures to fully implement the arrangements. In order to be ratified, the agreement needs to undergo a formal approval procedure within the EU institutions and the Member States, which could take several months. This process includes:

1. 1. The Commission must publish the agreement and present the deal to the Council and the European Parliament.
   2. The Council (QMV) and the European Parliament examine the final deal and vote on its approval.
   3. Member States will also have to each ratify the deal individually as the deal includes areas under national competence.
   4. Once ratified, the Commission implements the deal either via Implementing or Delegated Acts.