In its latest report, “Summer Outlook 2025”, published on 28 May 2025, the European Network of Transmission System Operators for Electricity (ENTSO-E) confirms that there are no overall risks to electricity supply security across most of the EU for the upcoming summer. The identified potential issues are limited to a few markets with constrained interconnection to the EU grid, requiring monitoring—especially during periods of high electricity demand and low generation availability.
As required by the EU Risk-Preparedness Regulation (EU/2019/941), the report is based on various simulations covering different resources, and the results indicate a generally stable adequacy outlook.
Key findings of the report include:
Installed renewable capacities, particularly solar, have increased significantly (+90 GW) compared to last summer.
At the same time, thermal generation capacities have decreased, mainly due to reduced coal and lignite usage, while gas-fired capacity has increased.
Planned unavailability of certain thermal generation units follows a normal seasonal pattern during summer months.
In some periods, renewable energy production is expected to exceed both demand and export capacity, requiring careful operational management and strategic planning.
The report also reiterates that the EU has supported Ukraine and Moldova since the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. In March 2022, the power grids of both countries were successfully synchronised with continental Europe. Solidarity-based preparedness remains vital due to ongoing risks of potential attacks on Ukrainian energy infrastructure.
As of May 2025, European transmission system operators allow 1.7 GW of export capacity toward Ukraine and Moldova, while imports from those countries have increased to 650 MW.
The Summer Outlook is accompanied by a retrospective review of the winter 2024/2025, which confirms that no major adequacy issues were observed.
