At the end of May, the EC published its assessment of the final updated national energy and climate plans (NECPs) for the entire EU, accompanied by a  Staff working document with an individual assessment of each country’s plans (including Bulgaria).

The EU has set an ambitious framework to enable it to become a decarbonized economy by 2050. The stability and full implementation of the existing legislative framework for achieving the 2030 climate and energy targets is a prerequisite for the EU to stay on track to achieve its ambitious 2040 target and climate neutrality by 2050, while realizing the full potential of the transition. Member States have a collective responsibility to achieve the EU’s binding 2030 energy and climate targets.

The EC’s understanding is that Member States should regularly discuss progress and policies with all stakeholders, in particular to identify and remove obstacles to the implementation of the targets and measures envisaged. The biennial reports on progress under the NECP are important assessment tools that promote transparency, predictability, and accountability with a view to collectively achieving the targets.

Main findings of the EU wide assessment

• Based on Member States’ projections, the Commission estimates a decrease in total net GHG emissions13 of around 54% in 2030 compared to 1990, hence showing that the EU is well on track to reach the 2030 target. This relies on full implementation of the Member States’ existing and additional policies and measures as well as of EU policies.
• GHG emissions from the sectors covered by the Effort Sharing Regulation (ESR) are expected to decrease by around 38% in 2030 compared to 2005, about 2 percentage points short of the EU’s 40% target.
• Though several Member States have stepped up efforts in the land sector compared to the draft plans, there is still a gap of about 45-60 MtCO2eq. (equivalent to about 100% to 140% of the target of additional removals) compared to the 2030 target under the Land Use Land Use Change and Forestry (LULUCF) Regulation.
• On climate adaptation, only some final NECPs sufficiently integrate preparedness and resilience to climate impacts. A limited number of plans consider measures in terms of water resilience.
• Most Member States present national contributions that are in line with the EU’s 2030 binding target for renewable energy share of at least 42.5%. However, a limited ambition gap of 1.5 percentage points remains.
• Despite improvements in Member States contributions to the EU’s target for energy efficiency of 11.7% by 2030, an ambition gap of 31.1 Mtoe remains for final energy consumption and 47.3 Mtoe for primary energy consumption. For final energy consumption this translates to an EU ambition level of 8.1%.
• Across the plans, energy security is bolstered by lower gas consumption and more diversified energy sources, including an increased role for nuclear energy, in power generation as well as heat production, in several Member States. However, we need to further adapt infrastructure to a decarbonised energy system, increased electrification based on variable renewables and fast-changing threats such as climate change and cybersecurity.
• On the internal energy market, Member States have introduced new measures to promote flexibility, stabilise markets and facilitate the penetration of renewables in their final plans.
• However, additional measures are needed to develop cross-border interconnections and further integrate markets.
• The final plans show an increased focus on the competitiveness of industry, resilience of supply chains, innovation and skills development. However, with some exceptions sufficiently specific and actionable objectives in these areas are often not included in the plans.
• About half of the plans recognise the importance of phasing out fossil fuels subsidies.
• Nevertheless, a list of existing fossil fuel subsidies, concrete timelines, and measures to phase them out are largely missing.
• On just transition, the plans largely describe the impacts of the energy transition on skills and training needs but lack detailed analysis of the social and employment impacts, particularly for vulnerable households, workers, and regions. More concrete measures and a clear indication of funds to mitigate these impacts would have been an asset. Moreover, Member States do not provide a sufficient analytical basis for the preparation of their Social Climate Plans.
• Most Member States address energy poverty and outline structural or income support measures with an emphasis on energy efficiency, renovation of buildings and decarbonisation.
• At the same time, only a few Member States provide clear definitions of energy poverty or set specific reduction targets.
• Member States’ investment estimates have improved considerably compared to the draft plans, but further efforts are needed to refine them and develop a comprehensive strategy for mobilising public and private finance to improve investor certainty, enabling the NECPs to become effective investment plans.
• A clearer overview of the public consultation process for preparing the final NECPs is provided in most plans. The participation processes could have been more inclusive and effective, providing more information and longer consultation timeframes.

Building on the lessons learned from the evaluation and implementation of the Regulation on the Governance of the Energy Union and Climate Action, the new European framework will integrate the priorities of the Clean Industrial Deal and the Competitiveness Compass to achieve the 2040 goal for a prosperous and autonomous economy, climate neutrality, and preparedness against climate risks. The EC will seek to simplify and refocus the NEPs to turn them into real investment plans that provide long-term predictability for investors and offer stakeholders a transparent framework for cooperation.