Ready or not... - ЕМИ България

The national gas system operator Bulgartransgaz and the main gas provider Bulgargaz published on 16-th June 2014 a press releases about the gas supply from Russia via Ukraine route.

The press releases state that Bulgaria follows closely the rapidly changing situation involving the natural gas supplies to Bulgaria and Europe through Ukraine and is ready to take immediate actions to protect the interests of the Bulgarian customers if needed. There has been no change in the gas supply schedule for Bulgaria yet and the parameters are within the agreed ones. No technical indications for disruption or a change in the characteristics of the flow have been established, according to information of the dispatching centers of the Bulgarian gas transmission operator Bulgartransgaz EAD and the gas transmission operators along the route of gas from Russia to Bulgaria. There has been no change in the physical flow and the pressure at the entry points of the country. In a view of ensuring the security of gas supply in Bulgaria, a number of measures are being followed enabling immediate actions and securing the needs of the consumers in the countries.

According to the press releases there are 355 million cubic meters of natural gas in the underground gas storage Chiren and with respect to the dynamic situation in Ukraine gas is continuously being injected in the storage. Almost two months later, looking up the current status of the only gas storage Chiren in Bulgaria there are 414.1 million cubic meters of natural gas at the end of the week 04.08.2014 -11.08.2014 or 17% increase according to the regularly published information about incoming and outgoing flows of natural gas storage. The underground gas storage, operated by Bulgartransgaz, has about 450 mln. cubic meters storage capacity of the active gas.

According to the same press releases the capacity for daily production from Chiren at the current levels of active gas is about 3.3 million cubic m/ day on average which provides about 65% of the daily consumption for this period of the year in the current weather conditions in the country. At the levels indicated the production of the quantities from Chiren will provide supplies for at least 100 days. In addition to production from the storage facility, local production is realized as well.

As of 1 January 2014 a technical opportunity for a transmission of 1 mcm/day up to 3 mcm/day of natural gas has been secured in the direction from Greece to Bulgaria depending on the opportunities of the Greek gas transmission network in compliance with the obligations under Regulation (ЕC) 994/2010.

Bulgartransgaz and Bulgargaz believe that the availability of these resources ensures the gas consumption in the country in the short-term without supply disruption for consumers. If the situation takes a negative course and there are serious signals for cutting off supply for Bulgaria, all the stakeholders and the public will be immediately notified.

The former vice prime- minister Daniela Bobeva announced on 16 June 2014 “The Bulgarian government is ready to secure gas for a maximum period of time, at least 3-4 months. There is a decision of the Council of Ministers to inject additional gas quantities in UGS Chiren. We have ideas for alternative supplies”, said Deputy Prime Minister on Economic Development Daniela Bobeva in response to a journalist’s question regarding Russia-Ukrain gas supply disputes. Ms. Bobeva explained that the construction of another storage facility was envisaged in the energy strategy, which would soon be presented”.

The main consumption of natural gas is for industrial purposes and varies between 60% and 70%. The energy sector has 30% – 40% share in the total natural gas consumption. Almost 73% of DHCs rely on a gas fuel for electricity and heat power generation. The share of households in natural gas consumption is about 2%.

According to the Preventive Action Plan, elaborated by Bulgartransgaz in compliance with the requirements of art. 5, para 1 of the Regulation № 994/2010 the usage of natural gas in Bulgaria by the consumers, included in the group “protected customers”, is at large dominated by the consumption of heat generated by district heating companies (on average around 4.4 mln m3/day during the winter). The daily direct consumption of natural gas in a cold winter day by public, administrative and household clients connected to the gas distribution network totals around 0.5 mln m3 natural gas. Thus, in a typical winter day, the total consumption of gas by protected customers is around 5 mln m3 natural gas. Whereas, the existing capacities and the volumes in gas storage Chiren allow to support a maximum daily natural gas production of 3.7 mln m3 for a period of 30 days. The latter confirms the existence of an objective opportunity to guarantee the supplies of the protected customers in the country in the event of disruption of the supplies from Russia, even by independent local sources –production from Chiren and gas fields-to the amount of 5.5 mln m3/day. The daily production of the underground gas storage is directly correlated with the volumes stored in it. If there is less active gas stored, the possible daily withdrawal rates decrease progressively.

Measures for the implementation of the infrastructure standard included in the Preventive Action Plan

According to Art 6 of the Regulation, the N-1 formula describes the ability of the technical capacity of the gas infrastructure to satisfy total gas demand in the calculated area in the case of disruption of the single largest gas infrastructure during a day of exceptionally high gas demand occurring with a statistical probability of once in 20 years.

No later than Dec 3 2014 in the event of disruption of the single largest infrastructure, the capacity of the remaining infrastructure should be able to supply the required volume gas to satisfy total gas demand in the calculated area for a day of exceptionally high gas demand occurring with a statistical probability of once in 20 years, i.e.N-1>100%.

The forecast for 2014 in the Preventive Action Plan envisage the result of N-1 formula to be 115.3% under the assumptions that are used reverse flow capacities of interconnectors from Greece and Romania and technical capacity for import through the interconnector Greece-Bulgaria (or IGB Project). The calculations using the n-1 formula for the infrastructure standard show that until the end of 2014, in the event of disruption of the single largest gas infrastructure (from Russia through Ukraine), the capacity of the remaining infrastructure (the reverse flow from Greece and the increased country’s gas production, as well as through newly constructed reverse interconnectors with Greece and Romania) will be able to supply the required volume of gas to satisfy total gas demand in the country for a day of exceptionally high gas demand.

Current status of the projects important for fulfilling the n-1 requirement

The technical capacity for reverse flow transmission from Greece to Bulgaria exists as we mentioned above.

The reverse capacity with Romania is 25 km long and the maximum capacity is 1.5 bln m3 annually (from Bulgaria to Romania) and 0.5 bln. m3 annually (from Romania to Bulgaria). The project is under final testing phase and soon it is expected to start working.

The IGB project is defined as a project of national interest and it also is included in the Project of Common Interest of European Commission. The deadline for implementation is the second half of 2016. Therefore the gas system operator cannot rely of 8.22 mln m3/day from this infrastructure in short term.

There is no available public information about current result of n-1 formula but probably under our own calculations it is about 60% taking into account the status of the above mentioned national infrastructure gas projects and the assumptions of the Preventive Action Plan.

Sources:

http://www.government.bg/cgi-bin/e-cms/vis/vis.pl?s=001&p=0234&n=463&g=