ENTSO-E and ENTSOG have recently published the draft joint scenarios that will serve as the basis for the 2026 Ten-Year Network Development Plans (TYNDPs) for electricity, hydrogen and natural gas.
In previous TYNDP cycles, the scenario framework consisted of the “National Trends+” (NT+) scenario, developed using a fully bottom-up approach, along with two additional scenarios – Distributed Energy (DE) and Global Ambition (GA) – which represented alternative pathways towards decarbonisation by 2050.
The new draft scenarios highlight the profound transformation of Europe’s energy system on the path to climate neutrality by 2050. Overall energy demand is expected to decline as a result of improved energy efficiency and accelerated electrification. At the same time, demand for electricity and hydrogen is projected to increase significantly, while methane consumption is expected to gradually decrease. This points to a future energy system characterised by a high degree of electrification and the growing use of hydrogen across various sectors of the economy.
The TYNDP scenarios assess the interactions between electricity, gas and hydrogen systems, providing a consistent and integrated approach to evaluating future infrastructure needs. This cycle also marks the first full implementation of ACER’s TYNDP Scenario Framework Guidelines from the very beginning of the process.
The framework is built around a central scenario – “National Trends+” (NT+) – which reflects the latest national energy and climate policies and is aligned with the European Union’s objectives of reducing greenhouse gas emissions by at least 55% by 2030 and achieving climate neutrality by 2050.
The key findings of the Central Scenario include:
- a continued decline in overall energy demand driven by improvements in energy efficiency;
- strong electrification and a significant increase in electricity demand;
- declining methane demand and the gradual decarbonisation of the energy system;
- the emergence of hydrogen as a key energy carrier, particularly for industry and for providing flexibility to the energy system.
In line with ACER’s new TYNDP Scenario Framework Guidelines, the scenario structure has been streamlined, with NT+ now serving as the Central Scenario and the main reference framework aligned with national and European policy objectives.
The additional DE and GA scenarios are no longer maintained in their previous form. Instead, two Economic Variants have been introduced: the High Economic Variant (HEV) and the Low Economic Variant (LEV). These variants do not constitute stand-alone scenarios but serve as stress tests of the Central Scenario, assessing the impact of different economic conditions on the development of the energy system.
This set of scenarios provides a robust foundation for the upcoming electricity and gas TYNDPs and enables a comprehensive assessment of Europe’s future infrastructure needs. It supports informed and effective planning decisions and will underpin the entire TYNDP 2026 cycle, including the 8th selection process for Projects of Common Interest and Projects of Mutual Interest (PCI/PMI).
It is important to emphasise that these scenarios are not forecasts of the future. Rather, they are exploratory tools designed to illustrate how the energy system could evolve under different assumptions regarding policies, technologies, markets and societal trends.
The TYNDP 2026 draft scenarios are available on the dedicated website. The package includes the Central Scenario Report, the Methodology Report, an enhanced data and visualisation platform, downloadable input and output datasets, and additional supporting documents. These documents will be submitted to ACER for its opinion and discussed with Member States before being reviewed and approved by the European Commission.
Source: ENTSOE
