Тhe European Court of Auditors (ECA) states in its latest report that REPowerEU is not making the expected progress at a time when Europe’s energy security is once again facing risks related to tensions in the Middle East. The plan aims to phase out imports of Russian fossil fuels and accelerate the transition to clean energy, but its results so far have been limited. It has yet to make a significant impact on national policies, with the 27 EU Member States having committed to less than one-fifth of the additional investments estimated at around €300 billion. According to the auditors, without a significant acceleration of efforts, REPowerEU will not achieve its ambitious objectives.

In May 2022, at the request of the European Council, the European Commission presented the REPowerEU plan, which aims to rapidly reduce the EU’s dependence on Russian fossil fuels by accelerating the transition to clean energy and pooling efforts to build a more resilient energy system and achieve a genuine Energy Union.

The plan includes a set of measures aimed at achieving five main objectives and raises the ambition for some of the EU’s key targets under the “Fit for 55” legislative package. These include increasing the share of renewable energy in the EU’s gross final energy consumption to 42.5%, with an additional 103 GW of solar and wind capacity, as well as reducing energy consumption by 11.7%.

Each Member State’s contribution to the overall renewable energy target is calculated based on the rules set out in the so-called Governance Regulation. This contribution is also relevant to meeting the annual greenhouse gas emissions targets established under the Effort Sharing Regulation. The European Commission is expected to assess the extent to which the individual targets are being achieved. The REPowerEU plan also underlines the importance of strengthening cross-border electricity interconnections.

In May 2022, the Commission estimated that achieving the more ambitious “Fit for 55” targets proposed under REPowerEU would require additional investment of around €300 billion by 2030. This is in addition to the investment already needed to meet the original objectives of the “Fit for 55” package.

The audit of REPowerEU aims to assess how effectively the EU’s main crisis-response instrument is functioning and where improvements are needed in its design and implementation. The ECA’s analysis identifies both elements that are working well and those that have not delivered the expected results, providing information that could help improve future energy measures at EU level. These findings are particularly relevant against the backdrop of new geopolitical tensions and crises in the Middle East, which could once again require rapid, coordinated and targeted action to safeguard the EU’s energy security.

What the ECA finds and recommends

Since the adoption of REPowerEU, the EU has reduced its dependence on imports of Russian fossil fuels. However, the investments mobilised to finance the plan – mainly through the REPowerEU chapters under the Recovery and Resilience Facility (RRF) – are not sufficient to achieve the more ambitious targets for renewable energy generation capacity and cross-border interconnection. In addition, the plan lacks sufficiently effective governance mechanisms to monitor its implementation and reliably measure the results achieved. The Commission also does not have sufficient powers to improve implementation, while neither the Commission nor the Member States have been able to provide data showing whether and how the gap between projected and actual investments is being addressed through other means.

The revised National Energy and Climate Plans (NECPs) and the REPowerEU chapters under the RRF are not sufficient to achieve the plan’s objectives. In a sample of 11 Member States, the ECA found that the revised NECPs do not provide sufficient information on which actions are aimed at implementing REPowerEU, how they are financed and how they complement the RRF measures included in the respective REPowerEU chapters.

The revised NECPs do not set targets related to independence from Russian fossil fuels, nor do they include additional commitments regarding the 15% electricity interconnection target as a result of REPowerEU. The link between Member States’ NECPs and their REPowerEU chapters under the RRF is generally weak. In most NECPs, cross-references to the measures included in these chapters are either unclear or absent. This makes it difficult to assess whether Member States will be able to achieve the REPowerEU objectives and close the significant gap between projected investment needs and the funding committed so far.

The additional investments mobilised through the plan remain significantly below the €300 billion estimated to be needed by 2030. This means that the additional investments actually made as a result of REPowerEU may not be sufficient to achieve the agreed objectives, the Commission’s initial estimate may have been too high, or both may be the case.

Despite the reduction in the EU’s dependence on Russian fossil fuels, a number of challenges remain. As a result of the sanctions imposed by the EU, imports of Russian fossil fuels have been restricted, with natural gas being the main exception. Oil imports have fallen sharply, while gas imports have also declined, although to a lesser extent. However, certain amounts of Russian oil continue to enter the EU indirectly through third countries, while some Member States still import significant quantities of natural gas.

The new Regulation No 261/2026 introduces a legally binding gradual ban on imports of Russian gas, which will lead to their full phase-out by the end of 2027. However, it does not provide for direct sanctions against Member States that fail to comply with the ban. Current energy market trends further underline the need to accelerate diversification and avoid excessive dependence on a single supplier in the future.

REPowerEU measures under the RRF with clear quantitative targets have so far resulted in only a limited increase in clean energy generation capacity, mainly from solar power. According to the Commission’s estimates, RRF measures included in the REPowerEU chapters are expected to provide at least 20 GW of additional renewable energy capacity by 2026. This represents less than 20% of the additional 103 GW of renewable energy generation capacity expected under the REPowerEU plan.

However, the ECA’s analysis shows that only 12 of the 45 renewable energy measures included in the REPowerEU chapters under the RRF have clear and measurable targets, with a combined capacity of 1.6 GW. The ECA also found that RRF milestones and targets are often linked to the amount of expenditure or the number of contracts, rather than specifying concrete results – such as the additional capacity created, measured in MW or GW. This makes it difficult to assess progress on RRF-funded measures aimed at developing additional renewable energy generation capacity.